Stoke City: A lot riding on Friday’s Blackburn game for Alex Neil

After Stoke’s remarkable 5-1 tonking of Sunderland at the weekend, City come back to earth to face two decidedly tricky games in 5 days against Top-4 opposition.

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Of the two, Blackburn’s game on Friday night is crucial. Not only will it reinforce the form shown as they freaked out the Black Cats at the Stadium Of Light, but it could also indicate a change of fortune for manager Alex Neil in front of a beleaguered yet patient set of home supporters. (This is assuming they come out on a freezing cold night rather then watch it live on Sky TV!)

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But the Blackburn game is also Neil’s 30th game in charge, and a perfect time to evaluate his 6 months in charge of City.

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HALF TERM REPORT

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After his side’s dismal 0-2 collapse at West Brom, it left him looking at 5 wins and SEVEN defeats in those first 15. This was worst than predecessors Gary Rowett and Michael O’Neil, and comparable to Nathan Jones’ dreadful record. (At least Nath only lost 5 of his first 15!)

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Further, comparing those first 15 games with his time at the four clubs he’d previously managed, the figures made even more grim reading. (At Norwich he won 10 from 15, & at Sunderland he won 8 & only lost 1.)

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30 THE MAGIC NUMBER

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Now after 29 league games (Blackburn makes it 30), it’s time to see if Alex is making any better progress at City.

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The answer, it seems, is a “no”; and this despite a break for the World Cup, a busy transfer window AND an unexpected trip to Dubai for the squad.

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His first 15 games gave him W5, D3, L7 (18pts). His next 14 (up until today) reads W5, D3, L6 (18pts), which shows little sign of improvement. In fact if Stoke lose to high-flying Rovers, his record since the World Cup break…will be exactly the same as it was before it!

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So, in total that’s 36pts in 29 games for Alex Neil at Stoke, whereas Gary Rowett got to 35pts in only 26 games. Why only 26? Because 35pts was not seen as good enough for Stoke & he was given the push after those 26 games. (Oh dear!)

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Now, obviously Alex Neil’s record isn’t nearly as good as Michael O’Neill’s, who won 13 of his first 30 games gaining 45pts; & obviously Nathan Jones’ record is much worse (a dismal 22pts, although he only actually lost 14 games in 30, comparable to Neil’s current record of 13 defeats (so far)).

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But again, if you sellotape Alex’s Stoke record (10 wins in 29 games, 36pts) next to his 4 previous clubs, it doesn’t make good reading. Sunderland made 45 points from only 24 games (Neil was only manager for 24 league games!), Preston 48pts from 30 games, Hamilton 52pts, and Norwich…an astounding 63pts!!!! This makes his Stoke 30-game effort look quite puny.

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BACK TO THE FUTURE

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Of course, it’s tricky to criticise Alex Neil as Stoke’s most successful managers – Tony Waddington, Tony Pulis and Tom Mather (for all those who remember the 1920s!) – all had extremely ropey starts to their managerial careers in The Potteries. But those were different days, when managers were given longer to get into their stride (instead of being sacked after 26 games!).

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But there can be little doubt that Alex has been signed as a IMPACT manager. That’s what his track record at previous clubs clearly shows. More worryingly, after failing as an impact manager at Stoke, he has no real track-record as a long-term prospect.

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For example, after initial success with Norwich, relegation followed almost immediately. His 4-year stint at Preston never really came to anything, and his Sunderland time was too short to validate. Only really at Hamilton (his first managerial post) did he exhibit any follow-through, by serving up a blistering half-season in the Scottish Premier after gaining promotion. But it was only one half-season before he was poached by Norwich. And that was 8 years ago. (And it was in Scotland!)

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So, now it is a journey into the unknown for Stoke City AND Alex Neil. The stats speak for themselves, and the club are still waiting for signs of any real progress.

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But what Neil really needs to do is to distance himself from the man he replaced, Michael O’Neill, whose (damning) last 30 league games were W8 D8 L14. Alex Neil’s (so far) are W10 D6 L13, only marginally better.

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A win against Blackburn should do the trick! Bare that in mind whether you’re freezing your butt off at the stadium (like me) or curled up in front of the telly!